If Nigerians Are Suffering So Badly In Tinubu’s First Year, What Hope Is There For Next Three?

BY ISAAC ASABOR*

Lagos–As Nigeria’s economy continues to deteriorate, with inflation rising, fuel subsidies removed, the naira weakening, and governance seemingly out of his hands, many citizens are left wondering: “If this is what we are experiencing in just under a year, what will the next three years hold for us under President Bola Tinubu’s administration?”

The reason for the preceding question is not farfetched, given that Nigerians have had a difficult time in recent months. The pain is palpable, from skyrocketing food prices to an unending fuel crisis and an overall cost-of-living increase that shows no signs of abating. After the initial optimism that greeted Tinubu’s government, which stemmed primarily from his campaign promises to create jobs, stabilise the economy, and restore investor confidence, reality has set in, and it is not pretty.

In light of the foregoing, it is worth noting that Tinubu promised to turn things around while campaigning for the election that propelled him to office. His slogan, “Renewed Hope,” appealed to voters looking for a leader who would address the issues that have plagued the country for years. Nonetheless, within the first year of his tenure, since he took office on May 29, 2023, Nigerians are left wondering whether the “hope” is being renewed or dashed.

Without a doubt, the removal of the fuel subsidy, while economically logical in the long run, has sent shockwaves through the economy, causing ripple effects in transportation, food prices, and other goods. While government officials claim that this action was necessary to stop the leak of billions of Naira in subsidies, the reality on the ground is dire. Citizens have yet to reap the benefits promised by this policy change, even as trust in the government is dwindling.

Another source of concern is the government’s reliance on loans from international institutions such as the World Bank and bilateral treaties with countries such as China. Although these loans were intended to fund critical infrastructure and economic growth projects, they did little to alleviate the common man’s immediate suffering.

According to the World Bank’s financial statement, Nigeria is Africa’s leading debtor to the International Development Association (IDA) and ranks third globally. By June 30, 2024, Nigeria’s IDA debt had increased by 14.4%, from $14.3 billion in FY2023 to $16.5 billion in FY2024.

Nigerians are increasingly wondering whether these debts will ever result in tangible benefits or if they will simply burden the country for decades to come. Many people are concerned that the next three years will see a debt-ridden government and citizens trapped in a cycle of poverty.

In an effort to cushion the economic blow, the government implemented relief measures such as cash transfers and food distribution. However, these efforts have been criticised as being too little, too late, with many citizens questioning whether the assistance is reaching the intended recipients. In some areas, there are complaints that these palliatives are distributed along political lines or are inaccessible to the poorest people who require them the most.

As a Nigerian concerned about the deplorable situation, as are many others, the assumption remains that if Tinubu’s government is unable to find a more effective way to provide relief to those struggling to survive, the next three years will be marked by increasing dissatisfaction and poverty.

Tinubu’s administration still has time to correct its course. Economic reforms, if implemented effectively, have the potential to stabilise and relieve the economy. However, reforms take time to produce results, and the average Nigerian cannot afford it.

Furthermore, investments in local production, agriculture, and infrastructure development are regarded as potential game changers. However, as Nigeria’s history has shown, the success of such programs is dependent on political will, transparency, and the elimination of corruption. Without these, any reform will fail to meet expectations.

With three years remaining, it is critical that the government shift its focus from policies that disproportionately affect the vulnerable to those that promote inclusive economic growth. Instilling hope will require strengthening social safety nets, ensuring equitable resource distribution, and cracking down on corruption.

However, the question remains: “If the first year under Tinubu has seen this level of economic hardship, what can Nigerians realistically expect in the years ahead?”

The government may still have time to redeem itself, but it will need decisive action, accountability, and a genuine concern for the welfare of the people. Otherwise, millions of Nigerians may experience a lifetime of economic hardship over the next three years.

At this point, it is appropriate to note that while bemoaning Tinubu’s performance in this context, especially given the fact that his government has only been in office for a year, may have appeared premature in normal circumstances, the reality on the ground speaks volumes about the level of hardship Nigerians are experiencing. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL)’s recent increase in petrol prices has fuelled an already raging fire of economic difficulties. This is because many households are dealing with skyrocketing transportation costs, rising food prices, and overall increased living expenses, leaving little room for patience or optimism. It is unsurprising that the public is frustrated, given that daily survival has become a pressing concern for the majority.

The petrol price increase, which has become a recurring feature of Tinubu’s administration, has only exacerbated the situation. With each increase, the ripple effects spread across various sectors of the economy, disproportionately affecting the most vulnerable citizens. Public transport fares have skyrocketed, and basic necessities have become even more expensive.

For the average Nigerian, who is already struggling to make ends meet, this latest increase comes as a crushing blow, exacerbating the sense of helplessness and desperation in communities across the country.

While economic reforms frequently take time to produce positive results, the rate at which these difficulties are unfolding leaves little room for optimism. Many Nigerians believe that the government’s promises of long-term relief and economic stability are insufficient to justify the current hardship. Tinubu’s administration is under increasing pressure to address these immediate concerns and provide concrete solutions before the frustration spills over into widespread unrest.