Reflections On The Hunger Crisis In Northern Nigeria

By David Stevenson, Dr. Abdul Kamara, Steven Were Omamo—

“As governments, donors, and development partners look to scale support in fragile regions, the question is no longer whether we can afford to invest—but whether we can afford not to.” – July 4, 2025.

Humanitarian agencies are racing against time to save lives in contexts where economies have collapsed, and hunger is exacerbated by conflict and extreme weather, among other factors. Take Nigeria, for example: Across the country, lives and livelihoods are being shattered by conflict and climate shocks. Once a breadbasket, the northern regions now rely heavily on humanitarian food assistance. The statistics speak for themselves: 30.6 million people are food insecure—10 million in three northern states; 17 million children are malnourished—the highest number in Africa and the second highest globally after India.

Farmers are cut off from their fields, and traders struggle to transport goods through dangerous or impassable roads. Millions are displaced. Yet, amid this fragility, pockets of resilience are emerging in areas where conflict has subsided, allowing some farmers to return to their farms.

Food assistance has saved millions of lives in northern Nigeria and contributed to the local agricultural economy—but not always systematically. What if food assistance could do more than meet immediate needs? What if it could become a catalyst for rebuilding food systems, revitalizing local economies, and laying the groundwork for durable peace and recovery?

Food systems encompass everything from ‘farm to fork’—it’s about understanding how we produce, transport, process, and consume food. The World Food Programme’s (WFP) shift from food aid to food assistance marked a significant policy reform. By focusing on “assistance” rather than “aid,” WFP has enabled roughly $200 million annually to be invested in Nigeria, including locally purchased food, cash transfers for people to buy food in local markets, and e-vouchers redeemable with local retailers.

However, there remain untapped opportunities to strengthen local food systems, restore markets, and build long-term resilience. For example, cash-based transfers can unintentionally undermine local agriculture when beneficiaries and retailers opt for imported food, allowing imports to outcompete or displace local production.

Conversely, local food procurement can stimulate production, strengthen markets, and complement private sector investment—even in fragile settings. With the right policies and incentives, food assistance can do more than save lives; it can aid in rebuilding economies and supporting long-term recovery.

We can provide food assistance and foster resilience simultaneously. Maintaining momentum is indeed possible despite challenges, as indicated by an upcoming study from the World Food Programme (WFP), the African Development Bank (AfDB), and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

The joint WFP-AfDB-IFPRI study will demonstrate that even in conflict-affected areas, food systems are not entirely broken. Farmers are planting in pockets of stability, women’s cooperatives are processing food for local markets, and youth-led logistics enterprises are emerging. These islands of functionality offer something rare in fragile contexts: momentum. However, sustaining this momentum requires investment.

In northern Nigeria, insecurity has fractured supply chains. Poor infrastructure, high transport costs, and post-harvest losses (up to 30–50 percent for certain crops) are driving up food prices and diminishing farmers’ incomes. Labor shortages resulting from people fleeing conflict have led to increased wages. Prices for fertilizers and seeds remain prohibitive for most.

Despite these constraints, the region boasts remarkable potential—spanning diverse agro-ecological zones with year-round production capacity. Demand for processed products is growing, and public investment, such as the Government’s AfDB-supported wheat cultivation initiative on over a million hectares, is increasing. Innovations in climate-smart agriculture, digital input systems, and inclusive finance are also taking root.

The lesson is clear: with the right investments, even fragile regions can transform their food systems.

So, what changes are necessary?

First, humanitarian food systems must be reimagined—from emergency pipelines to economic platforms. Local sourcing, tailored cash transfers, and co-investments in storage, processing, and logistics can transform assistance into a powerful driver of resilience. The local purchase program could be expanded to serve as a humanitarian solution. WFP’s Food System Influence Index is one example of how the agency is shifting towards food-system-sensitive operations—designed to assess the contributions that cash transfers and local food purchases can make to the local food system.

Second, investments must be structured, not scattered. Development plans often stop at project lists, typically lacking bankable investment portfolios. These portfolios should adeptly blend grant financing with concessional loans, specifically tailored to the unique challenges of fragile environments, and supported by expert technical assistance on the ground.

This approach has yet to be implemented and requires meaningful collaboration among the private sector, international financial institutions, and operational agencies such as WFP. Bundling road repairs with off-grid processing or linking farmer cooperatives to procurement hubs can unlock scalability and impact. This is where AfDB’s infrastructure expertise and IFPRI’s analytical capabilities can add real value.

It also necessitates a shift toward a risk-adjusted return mindset—a familiar concept in the private sector but one that humanitarian and development actors must progressively adapt.

Additionally, empowerment of small-scale farmers, with a focus on engaging women and youth at the center of investment, is crucial.

Third, the key levers of resilience must be identified: reducing post-harvest losses, improving access to inputs, lowering transport costs, and modernizing processing. Climate-smart technologies—such as solar-powered dryers, drought-tolerant seeds, and weather insurance—must be integrated into the food systems. Furthermore, informal taxation that erodes value from food systems must be addressed.

Finally, recovery efforts must be inclusive. Women and youth play a central role in food systems in fragile settings but face barriers to accessing land, finance, and training. Targeted programs, combined with broader policy reforms, are essential to unlocking their economic potential.

From Fragility to Prosperity

The situation in northern Nigeria epitomizes a broader reality: humanitarian aid is indispensable, but insufficient on its own. It must be linked to long-term strategies for recovery and growth. With proper support, food systems can stabilize communities, create jobs, and foster peace. This is not merely a development challenge; it is a significant investment opportunity.

When structured adequately, investments in food systems can yield substantial returns in fragile settings—reducing reliance on aid, improving nutrition, stimulating markets, and encouraging political stability. As governments, donors, and development partners strive to increase support in fragile regions, the question is no longer whether we can afford to invest—but whether we can afford not to.

Northern Nigeria presents a stark illustration of both the high stakes involved and the transformative potential that lies ahead, demanding our focused attention and decisive action.

• David Stevenson, WFP Country Director in Nigeria; Dr. Abdul Kamara, African Development Bank Director General for Nigeria; Dr. Steven Were Omamo, International Food Policy Research Institute Director for Africa.