Nigeria’s National Grid Collapse: Another Blackout As System Fails For 7th Time In 2024

BY ISAAC ASABOR

Once again, the lights have gone out in Nigeria. On Monday, October 14, 2024, the national grid suffered another collapse, marking the seventh time this year alone that the country has been plunged into darkness due to systemic failures. For millions of Nigerians, this is a grimly familiar story, one that speaks volumes about the persistent challenges in the nation’s power sector. Despite years of reforms, billions of dollars in investments, and promises from successive governments, the country’s power supply remains woefully inadequate, and the national grid’s frequent failures symbolize the broader infrastructure deficiencies that continue to hold Nigeria back.

The frequency of grid collapses in Nigeria is alarmingly high. Over the past decade, Nigeria’s power grid has failed more than 200 times, with an increasing rate in the last five years. In 2022 alone, the national grid collapsed eight times, continuing a disturbing trend of failures. In 2023, there were five collapses, slightly down from the previous year, but still significant given the critical role that electricity plays in the country’s economy. This year, 2024, the collapse on October 14 marked the seventh incident so far.

To put this in perspective, it is expedient to opine, as gathered from a reliable source through the Google search engine, that the breakdown of the grid failures in recent years had 2018 recording 13 collapses, 2019 with 11 collapses, 2020 with y 6 collapses and 2021 with 9 collapses. In a similar vein, 2022 recorded 8 collapses, 2023 recorded 9 collapses and 2024, so far, has recorded 7 collapses.

The situation worsens when we consider that each grid collapse results in nationwide or widespread blackouts, often affecting millions of Nigerians. Industrial activities grind to a halt, small businesses suffer from lost productivity, and homes are left without power for extended periods. Given that Nigeria generates only about 4,000 to 5,000 megawatts (MW) on average for a population of over 200 million people, any interruption in power supply exacerbates an already precarious situation.

Given the foregoing unpalatable situation as graphically painted, particularly when not a few Nigerians expect appreciable improvement given President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s campaign promise and the Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu’s often-mouthed assurances at various public events, it is tempting to ask, “Why the October 2024 Collapse: What Happened?”

The response to the foregoing question cannot be farfetched as not a few Nigerians, on Monday, October 14, 2024, across the country woke up to find their homes and businesses without electricity. According to the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN), the collapse was due to a “system disturbance” at one of the transmission stations. While officials were quick to assure the public that efforts were underway to restore power, the damage was already done. This particular collapse came at a time when many Nigerians were already grappling with rising energy costs, a struggling economy, and inflationary pressures that have pushed many households to the brink.

Although the exact cause of the October collapse has yet to be officially disclosed, experts point to several factors that could have contributed. One common issue in previous collapses has been a failure in the transmission infrastructure. Nigeria’s power grid is notoriously old and fragile, with many parts of the system operating beyond their intended lifespan. Compounding this are issues of poor maintenance, vandalism, and even sabotage in some cases. A lack of investment in grid modernization and capacity upgrades has also left the system vulnerable to collapses whenever there is an unexpected surge or drop in power generation.

The economic consequences of grid collapses are immense. Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, relies heavily on electricity to power its industries, businesses, and households. When the grid collapses, manufacturing plants shut down, workers are sent home, and businesses lose productivity. In the informal sector, where many rely on small businesses for their livelihoods, the effects are even more devastating. Small business owners often have to turn to expensive and environmentally harmful generators to keep their operations running during blackouts. This reliance on generators increases the cost of doing business, and these additional costs are often passed on to consumers.

A 2021 report by the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) highlighted the significant economic losses due to power outages, estimating that Nigerian manufacturers spent an additional N144.5 billion on self-generated electricity in 2020 alone. In the wake of frequent grid collapses, these numbers have likely increased. When the power supply is unstable, foreign investors are also deterred from entering the market, further limiting economic growth.

Several underlying issues contribute to the frequent grid failures, and addressing them requires a comprehensive approach.

One of the primary causes is the ageing infrastructure. The national grid is overburdened and operates well beyond its designed capacity. Much of the country’s transmission infrastructure was built in the 1960s and 1970s and has not received the necessary upgrades to cope with the increased demand for electricity. As a result, the system is prone to breakdowns.

In a similar vein, underinvestment in the Power Sector has, for the umpteenth time, been mentioned as one of the causes of frequent grip collapse. Despite significant funds being allocated for power sector reforms, much of the money has not been properly utilized. Corruption, bureaucratic inefficiencies, and mismanagement have hampered efforts to improve the grid. In many cases, contracts for power sector projects are awarded but not completed.

Also, in a similar vein, is insufficient power generation. Experts have been sounding the alarm that Nigeria’s power generation capacity is insufficient to meet the demands of its growing population and economy. While the country has an installed capacity of around 13,000 MW, only about 4,000 to 5,000 MW is regularly available due to gas supply shortages, plant maintenance issues, and transmission constraints.

While non-experts have been pondering over how insufficient power generation can lead to grid collapse, there is also the narrative of transmission losses. Experts say even when power is generated, much of it is lost in transmission due to inefficiencies in the grid. According to the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC), the country loses about 30% of the electricity generated during transmission and distribution.

Again, poor maintenance and sabotage have also been blamed for incessant grid collapse over the years.  Regular maintenance is critical to keeping any power grid functioning properly, but in Nigeria, maintenance schedules are often delayed or ignored. Additionally, incidents of vandalism and sabotage have further weakened the system. Power infrastructure such as transformers and transmission lines are often targeted by thieves, and in some cases, deliberate sabotage has occurred for political or financial reasons.

Successive governments have promised to fix Nigeria’s power problems, but tangible results have been slow to materialize. President Bola Tinubu, who took office in 2023, vowed to prioritize the power sector as part of his economic reforms. His administration has focused on expanding the country’s energy mix by encouraging private sector investment in renewable energy, particularly solar power, and pushing for increased local gas production to fuel power plants.

However, despite these efforts, the national grid remains fragile, and the pace of reform has not been fast enough to prevent further collapses. The government’s Power Sector Recovery Program (PSRP), launched in collaboration with the World Bank, aims to address many of the issues facing the sector, including increasing generation capacity, improving transmission infrastructure, and ensuring more reliable electricity supply. But until these initiatives bear fruit, Nigerians will continue to suffer the consequences of a failing grid.

The latest grid collapse on October 14, 2024, is a stark reminder that Nigeria’s power sector remains in crisis. While the government has made strides in improving the sector, much more needs to be done to modernize the grid, increase power generation, and reduce the country’s dependence on generators. The cost of inaction is too high—both economically and socially. With each collapse, the trust and patience of the Nigerian people are eroded further.

As the Tinubu administration grapples with this issue, it must recognize that reliable power is not just a matter of convenience; it is a cornerstone of economic development. Without a stable electricity supply, Nigeria cannot hope to achieve its potential as a global economic power. Urgent and sustained action is needed to ensure that the national grid no longer remains the weak link in Nigeria’s infrastructure chain.